The countdown to the 70th Ballon d’Or has begun. On 26 October 2026, football’s most prestigious individual award will be presented at the London Palladium, the first time the ceremony has ever been held in London.
This year’s race is more open than usual. The voting period covers the 2025/26 season, including the 2026 World Cup, and several players can make a strong case for the prize.
For fans and bettors who follow footballpredictions-today.com for match analysis, award markets offer a different kind of challenge. Instead of form and fixtures, the key question is how 100 journalists will weigh individual brilliance against team success.
Harry Kane: The Bookmakers’ Favourite
Harry Kane enters the final weeks as the favourite. His season with Bayern Munich was extraordinary: 61 goals in 51 appearances across all competitions, a second European Golden Shoe and major domestic success.
Kane is aiming to become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or since 2001, and the London ceremony only adds to the storyline. The one gap in his case is the lack of a Champions League or World Cup title, which voters have often rewarded in the past.
Kylian Mbappé: The World Cup Record-Breaker
Kylian Mbappé has made his own position clear, saying publicly that he believes he deserves the award. His strongest argument came at the World Cup, where he became the tournament’s all-time leading scorer.
That historic achievement gives him a narrative few rivals can match. However, individual records do not always outweigh collective trophies, especially when another contender lifted the World Cup itself.
Rodri and Kvaratskhelia: The Trophy Winners
Rodri is perhaps the most dangerous challenger. He captained Spain to World Cup success and was named Player of the Tournament, and he already knows what it takes to win the Ballon d’Or after his triumph in 2024.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is another serious candidate after starring in Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League success. Voters often favour players who shine in Europe’s biggest club competition, which keeps him firmly in the conversation.
The wider shortlist also includes names such as Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, Vitinha and William Saliba, while Cristiano Ronaldo is notably absent this time.
Ballon d’Or 2026 Predictions: What Will Decide the Vote?
The criteria combine individual performances, team achievements and class and fair play. In practice, the balance between the first two usually decides the winner.
If voters prioritise pure numbers, Kane’s goal record is almost impossible to ignore. If they reward the biggest trophies, Rodri’s World Cup and Kvaratskhelia’s Champions League run become stronger arguments. Mbappé sits somewhere in between, with a historic individual record on the biggest stage.
From a betting perspective, the short price on Kane leaves limited value. Contenders with longer odds but a clear trophy-based argument, such as Rodri or Kvaratskhelia, may be more interesting for bettors willing to take a calculated risk.
For the full list of nominees and more background on the race, Sky Sports has published a detailed overview of the 30 contenders.
A Historic Night in London
The 2026 ceremony will celebrate 70 years of the award and pay tribute to Stanley Matthews, the first winner in 1956. Whoever lifts the trophy will become part of a very special chapter in its history.
Based on current odds and public opinion, Kane is the logical favourite, while Rodri looks like the strongest alternative. Still, award votes can surprise even the most confident football predictions.
For bettors, the smart approach is to treat Ballon d’Or markets as entertainment rather than a certainty, compare prices carefully and avoid staking more than you would on any other long-term bet.